Even this year, which is the eighth anniversary of the lows of the Financial Crisis, has the S&P 500 charging forward with a 9.5% performance year-to-date. That said, it’s important to keep in mind that individual sectors that make up the market are not created equally – and while some have been crushing it, others have been taking a beating. Today’s visualization, including a screenshot pulled from FinViz.com, shows a map of stocks in the U.S. market. Divided into different subsectors and colored by performance YTD, it helps give an idea of what has outperformed the market, and which stocks have been left in the dust.
The Winners So Far
- Internet and Software Companies like Facebook and Alphabet continue to dominate online advertising, while Microsoft, Baidu, and JD.com also are outperforming. SaaS-focused companies like Salesforce, Oracle, Workday, and Adobe also are beating the market as a whole in 2017 so far.
- Resorts and Lodging Hotels, cruise lines, and casinos are performing impressively in 2017 so far, even with companies like Airbnb competing on the accommodation front. Wynn Resorts, for example, is up over 40% on the year so far.
- Aerospace and Defense With Trump in the White House and both houses of Congress being controlled by Republicans, it’s no surprise to see big aerospace companies like Boeing up over 50% YTD.
- Healthcare As the population continues to age, medical appliance and biotech subsectors have taken off in 2017.
The Losers So Far
- Real Estate (Retail) The “Retailpocalypse” has not been kind to REITs focused on commercial spaces.
- Auto Parts With EVs and autonomous vehicles approaching on the horizon, less auto parts will be needed per capita.
- Apparel Stores Changing consumer tastes and the transition to online/mobile shopping is making life tough for some companies, like Urban Outfitters, which is down more than -30% on the year.
- Independent Oil & Gas The recovery in oil prices that happened in 2016 has not continued into 2017, and this has hurt independent oil and gas producers that have higher average costs. on Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem. Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period. To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions. Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments. Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices. On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in. For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.
